Russia’s oil and gas industry has been the driving force behind its economy ever since the first oil fields were discovered in Tsarist Russia at the end of the 19th century at the shores of the Caspian. In the 21st century, the Russian economy remains highly dependent on the production of oil and gas. Therefore, the rosy outlook of the fossil fuel industry is good news for Moscow and its political ambitions.

A decade ago, fossil fuels accounted for just over 80 percent of final energy consumption in the world. During the last ten years, renewable energy has boomed, and installations continue to soar to record highs. But oil, gas, and coal still represent over 80 percent of final energy consumption, despite the rising share of renewable energy in the world’s total energy consumption.

There are a number of observable trends in oil supplies and by extension prices, presently. I am going to discuss one of them in this article. A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas. A favorite analogy of mine comes to mind, the ship is nearing the dock. In nautical parlance that means the time for course corrections is at an end. So we shall see if that is the case for oil. The massive "ship" that is world oil demand is on an unalterable collision with supplies that will have profound implications for consumers. This key metric reveals what the future is likely to hold for our energy security as the world continues to recover from the virus to those who will listen. The level of drilling and by extension capital investment is insufficient and has been for a number of years to sustain oil production at current levels. It's no secret that even with the lower break-even costs for new projects thanks to cost-cutting by the industry the last few years, oil extraction is a capital-intensive business. The chart below from WoodMac, an energy consultancy, shows just how severe the decline in capex has been.

Oil prices rallied to their highest levels two and a half years after OPEC+ recently agreed to extend its historic production cuts. On Friday, WTI was trading at $70.91 per barrel while Brent crude was changing hands at $72.69. levels they last touched in 2018. By Wednesday morning WTI was trading above $72 and Brent had climbed above $74. Beginning on May 1, OPEC cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day, with the cuts scheduled to start declining beginning July 1. OPEC+ now says July's production cut will be 9.6 million bpd after Mexico said it remains committed to the group's prior agreement. Consequently, oil inventories that had built up in the middle of last year due to oversupply amid weak demand due to the pandemic now appear to be on pace to fall below historical averages as early as next month. Meanwhile, U.S. supply remains subdued as companies have held back production to conserve cash. OPEC+ is optimistic that shale production won't disrupt the delicate balance it has worked to establish for at least two years.