OPEC+ seeks consensus on November oil supply increase amid price pressures

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC+ nations are trying to reach consensus on how to adjust their oil production next month, with either a modest or more substantial supply increase possible, delegates said. 

Preliminary discussions before the group meets on Sunday swayed between two broad options for November output. One delegate said the base case is a repeat of this month’s marginal 137,000 barrels-a-day hike. However, boosting by two or more times that amount is also possible, according to another. All the people asked not to be identified as the talks are private.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are negotiating how to return another layer of halted production — about 1.65 million barrels a day in total — straight after swiftly restoring a previous tranche despite warnings of an impending oil surplus. Prices are trading near a four-month low.

The first delegate added that the group is being vigilant about potential supply losses from Russia. Moscow has been contending with Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries and port constraints, in addition to international sanctions following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his neighbor.

The second official said 137,000 is possible but an increase similar to the bumper additions made this summer has been floated, when OPEC+ added 411,000 barrels a day and then 548,000 per day.

It’s unclear where the exact differences in position lie. Recently, the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have pressed to add barrels as they seek to reclaim market share, while in one meeting Russia led a faction that opposed an accelerated increase. 

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman heads to Washington next month to meet with President Donald Trump, who has called for lower fuel costs.

Earlier this week, one delegate said the alliance would examine adding the remainder of the current tranche in three monthly instalments of 500,000 barrels a day. The OPEC secretariat subsequently said in a social media post that it wasn’t planning a boost of that magnitude.