Oil prices to decline as global oversupply builds through 2026:US EIA

Oil prices are set to decline as global supply growth outpaces demand, with Brent crude forecast to fall from an average of $69/b in 2025 to an average of $52/b in 2026,the US Energy Information Administration said Oct.7.

Global oil stocks are expected to build by an average 2.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain elevated throughout 2026,putting downward pressure on prices, the ElA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Global liquid fuels consumption growth of 1.1 million b/d annually, driven primarily by non-OECD countries in Asia, will not be sufficient to absorb the supply growth, the ElA said. China's strategic inventory builds have provided some price support this year, but uncertainty remains over whether Beijing will maintain this pace, according to the outlook.

The negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could also affect supply, and further sanctions could be put on buyers of Russia's oil,the ElA said in its outlook. "Geopolitical developments,including Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil ports,have raised market concerns that oil production or exports could be disrupted," the ElA said.